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Bilan : la nuit prevue suit la soiree reelle (regression sur 24 nuits), nuage Grafana corrige

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Le service publie le facteur nuit prevue / nuit moyenne (sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh),
le bilan l'applique a son profil de 21:30 a 09:00. Diagnostics 81/81, bilan 68/68.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011uJ47NxgfpGnuuMr3f2n7Z
This commit is contained in:
Tallagrand Thierry
2026-09-28 23:36:08 +02:00
parent fc5b219abf
commit e18158bfd1
14 changed files with 306 additions and 153 deletions
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16
HANDOFF.md
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@@ -1066,8 +1066,20 @@ Grafana « La nuit » : 3 panneaux (nuage soiree/nuit avec regression et CE SOIR
tableau des nuits, profil horaire 20 nuits contre la nuit en cours). SQL dans
`tools/grafana-nuits.sql` et `tools/grafana-profil-horaire.sql`, verifiees contre le
calcul par script (identiques). ⚠️ Rendu du nuage (xychart Grafana 11.3) non vu de mes
yeux : le proprietaire confirme. Piste ouverte : faire utiliser la regression par le
bilan (la nuit prevue suit la soiree reelle).
yeux : le proprietaire a vu « Err » -> refait en UNE requete, mapping automatique.
**Le bilan utilise la regression (28/09 23:34, demande du proprietaire).** Le service
d'historisation publie `sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh` (21:30 -> 09:00, toutes les
5 min ; `hors_fenetre` le jour, `indisponible` si < 15 nuits ou r2 < 0,2) avec le
FACTEUR nuit prevue / nuit moyenne des memes donnees (le profil vient des compteurs,
la regression des puissances : le rapport annule l'ecart de methode). Le bilan
multiplie son profil p50 par ce facteur sur 21:30-09:00 (prorata), le p80 ne descend
jamais (max(p80, p50 recale)), facteur borne [0,75 ; 1,45] = extremes des 24 nuits,
perime > 30 min -> ignore. Phrase « Nuit recalee sur la soiree : conso x1,092 » dans
la raison. Tests : diagnostics 81/81 (valeurs verifiees par un calcul Python
independant), bilan 68/68 (verifie a la main : +0,71 kWh, +2,4 points), 2 mutations
qui mordent. Premier calcul reel 23:35 : SOC 47, requis 50,5 (~48 sans facteur) ->
1,05 kWh EDF a 01:24. ⚠️ Ma premiere annonce d'un facteur 1,12 etait fausse (moyenne
calculee de tete) : 1,09.
---
*Document mis a jour le : 28/09/2026 (~02:15) — VRM remplace Forecast.Solar (comparaison le 05/10), tenir jusqu'a la prochaine HC, prevision de nuit pour l'agent*

118
deploy/historisation/grafana/dashboards/nuit.json
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@@ -667,40 +667,7 @@
"format": "table",
"rawQuery": true,
"editorMode": "code",
"rawSql": "WITH pts AS (\n SELECT cle, ts, valeur,\n least(coalesce(lead(ts) OVER (PARTITION BY cle ORDER BY ts), now()), ts + interval '1 hour') AS fin\n FROM mesure\n WHERE cle IN ('sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power',\n 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system')\n AND ts > now() - interval '40 days'\n),\njours AS (\n SELECT d::date AS j,\n (d::date + time '18:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS s0,\n (d::date + time '21:30') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n0,\n (d::date + 1 + time '01:24') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS hc,\n (d::date + 1 + time '09:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n1\n FROM generate_series(current_date - 35, current_date, interval '1 day') d\n),\ne AS (\n SELECT j.j,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS c_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS v_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS c_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS v_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS c_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS v_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS r_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS pv_nuit\n FROM jours j JOIN pts p ON p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n1\n GROUP BY j.j\n),\nnuits AS (\n SELECT j.j, j.n0, j.n1,\n round(((coalesce(c_soir,0) - coalesce(v_soir,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS soiree_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_hc,0) - coalesce(v_hc,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_hc_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_nuit,0) - coalesce(v_nuit,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_nuit_kwh,\n round((coalesce(v_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS voiture_kwh,\n round((coalesce(r_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS reseau_kwh,\n round((coalesce(pv_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS pv_avant_9h_kwh,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n0 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_2130,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.hc AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_0124,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n1 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_9h\n FROM jours j JOIN e ON e.j = j.j\n WHERE j.n1 <= now() AND j.j >= date '2026-09-04'\n)\nSELECT soiree_kwh AS \"Soiree\", maison_nuit_kwh AS \"Nuit sans voiture\" FROM nuits WHERE voiture_kwh < 0.5 ORDER BY 1"
},
{
"refId": "B",
"datasource": {
"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource",
"uid": "evcs-pg"
},
"format": "table",
"rawQuery": true,
"editorMode": "code",
"rawSql": "WITH pts AS (\n SELECT cle, ts, valeur,\n least(coalesce(lead(ts) OVER (PARTITION BY cle ORDER BY ts), now()), ts + interval '1 hour') AS fin\n FROM mesure\n WHERE cle IN ('sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power',\n 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system')\n AND ts > now() - interval '40 days'\n),\njours AS (\n SELECT d::date AS j,\n (d::date + time '18:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS s0,\n (d::date + time '21:30') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n0,\n (d::date + 1 + time '01:24') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS hc,\n (d::date + 1 + time '09:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n1\n FROM generate_series(current_date - 35, current_date, interval '1 day') d\n),\ne AS (\n SELECT j.j,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS c_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS v_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS c_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS v_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS c_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS v_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS r_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS pv_nuit\n FROM jours j JOIN pts p ON p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n1\n GROUP BY j.j\n),\nnuits AS (\n SELECT j.j, j.n0, j.n1,\n round(((coalesce(c_soir,0) - coalesce(v_soir,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS soiree_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_hc,0) - coalesce(v_hc,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_hc_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_nuit,0) - coalesce(v_nuit,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_nuit_kwh,\n round((coalesce(v_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS voiture_kwh,\n round((coalesce(r_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS reseau_kwh,\n round((coalesce(pv_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS pv_avant_9h_kwh,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n0 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_2130,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.hc AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_0124,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n1 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_9h\n FROM jours j JOIN e ON e.j = j.j\n WHERE j.n1 <= now() AND j.j >= date '2026-09-04'\n)\nSELECT soiree_kwh AS \"Soiree\", maison_nuit_kwh AS \"Nuit avec voiture\" FROM nuits WHERE voiture_kwh >= 0.5 ORDER BY 1"
},
{
"refId": "C",
"datasource": {
"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource",
"uid": "evcs-pg"
},
"format": "table",
"rawQuery": true,
"editorMode": "code",
"rawSql": "WITH pts AS (\n SELECT cle, ts, valeur,\n least(coalesce(lead(ts) OVER (PARTITION BY cle ORDER BY ts), now()), ts + interval '1 hour') AS fin\n FROM mesure\n WHERE cle IN ('sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power',\n 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system')\n AND ts > now() - interval '40 days'\n),\njours AS (\n SELECT d::date AS j,\n (d::date + time '18:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS s0,\n (d::date + time '21:30') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n0,\n (d::date + 1 + time '01:24') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS hc,\n (d::date + 1 + time '09:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n1\n FROM generate_series(current_date - 35, current_date, interval '1 day') d\n),\ne AS (\n SELECT j.j,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS c_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS v_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS c_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS v_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS c_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS v_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS r_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS pv_nuit\n FROM jours j JOIN pts p ON p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n1\n GROUP BY j.j\n),\nnuits AS (\n SELECT j.j, j.n0, j.n1,\n round(((coalesce(c_soir,0) - coalesce(v_soir,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS soiree_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_hc,0) - coalesce(v_hc,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_hc_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_nuit,0) - coalesce(v_nuit,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_nuit_kwh,\n round((coalesce(v_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS voiture_kwh,\n round((coalesce(r_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS reseau_kwh,\n round((coalesce(pv_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS pv_avant_9h_kwh,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n0 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_2130,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.hc AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_0124,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n1 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_9h\n FROM jours j JOIN e ON e.j = j.j\n WHERE j.n1 <= now() AND j.j >= date '2026-09-04'\n)\n\nSELECT v.x AS \"Soiree\", round((r.a + r.b * v.x)::numeric, 2) AS \"Regression\"\n FROM (SELECT regr_intercept(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) AS a, regr_slope(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) AS b,\n min(soiree_kwh) AS lo, max(soiree_kwh) AS hi FROM nuits) r,\n LATERAL (VALUES (r.lo), (r.hi)) v(x)\n ORDER BY 1"
},
{
"refId": "D",
"datasource": {
"type": "grafana-postgresql-datasource",
"uid": "evcs-pg"
},
"format": "table",
"rawQuery": true,
"editorMode": "code",
"rawSql": "WITH pts AS (\n SELECT cle, ts, valeur,\n least(coalesce(lead(ts) OVER (PARTITION BY cle ORDER BY ts), now()), ts + interval '1 hour') AS fin\n FROM mesure\n WHERE cle IN ('sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power',\n 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system')\n AND ts > now() - interval '40 days'\n),\njours AS (\n SELECT d::date AS j,\n (d::date + time '18:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS s0,\n (d::date + time '21:30') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n0,\n (d::date + 1 + time '01:24') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS hc,\n (d::date + 1 + time '09:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n1\n FROM generate_series(current_date - 35, current_date, interval '1 day') d\n),\ne AS (\n SELECT j.j,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS c_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS v_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS c_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS v_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS c_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS v_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS r_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS pv_nuit\n FROM jours j JOIN pts p ON p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n1\n GROUP BY j.j\n),\nnuits AS (\n SELECT j.j, j.n0, j.n1,\n round(((coalesce(c_soir,0) - coalesce(v_soir,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS soiree_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_hc,0) - coalesce(v_hc,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_hc_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_nuit,0) - coalesce(v_nuit,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_nuit_kwh,\n round((coalesce(v_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS voiture_kwh,\n round((coalesce(r_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS reseau_kwh,\n round((coalesce(pv_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS pv_avant_9h_kwh,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n0 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_2130,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.hc AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_0124,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n1 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_9h\n FROM jours j JOIN e ON e.j = j.j\n WHERE j.n1 <= now() AND j.j >= date '2026-09-04'\n),\nf AS (\n SELECT ((CASE WHEN (now() AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris')::time >= time '18:00'\n THEN (now() AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris')::date\n ELSE (now() AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris')::date - 1 END) + time '18:00')\n AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS s0\n),\nsoir AS (\n SELECT sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, f.s0 + interval '3 hours 30 minutes', now()) - greatest(p.ts, f.s0))\n * CASE WHEN p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' THEN -1\n WHEN p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) / 3.6e6 AS kwh\n FROM pts p, f\n WHERE p.fin > f.s0 AND p.ts < least(f.s0 + interval '3 hours 30 minutes', now())\n)\nSELECT round(s.kwh::numeric, 2) AS \"Soiree\",\n round((regr_intercept(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) + regr_slope(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) * s.kwh)::numeric, 2) AS \"Ce soir (prevu)\"\n FROM nuits, soir s GROUP BY s.kwh"
"rawSql": "WITH pts AS (\n SELECT cle, ts, valeur,\n least(coalesce(lead(ts) OVER (PARTITION BY cle ORDER BY ts), now()), ts + interval '1 hour') AS fin\n FROM mesure\n WHERE cle IN ('sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power',\n 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system')\n AND ts > now() - interval '40 days'\n),\njours AS (\n SELECT d::date AS j,\n (d::date + time '18:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS s0,\n (d::date + time '21:30') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n0,\n (d::date + 1 + time '01:24') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS hc,\n (d::date + 1 + time '09:00') AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS n1\n FROM generate_series(current_date - 35, current_date, interval '1 day') d\n),\ne AS (\n SELECT j.j,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS c_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n0) - greatest(p.ts, j.s0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n0) AS v_soir,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS c_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.hc) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.hc) AS v_hc,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS c_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS v_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_grid_power_l1' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS r_nuit,\n sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, j.n1) - greatest(p.ts, j.n0))) FILTER (WHERE p.cle = 'sensor.victron_pv_power_system' AND p.fin > j.n0 AND p.ts < j.n1) AS pv_nuit\n FROM jours j JOIN pts p ON p.fin > j.s0 AND p.ts < j.n1\n GROUP BY j.j\n),\nnuits AS (\n SELECT j.j, j.n0, j.n1,\n round(((coalesce(c_soir,0) - coalesce(v_soir,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS soiree_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_hc,0) - coalesce(v_hc,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_hc_kwh,\n round(((coalesce(c_nuit,0) - coalesce(v_nuit,0)) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS maison_nuit_kwh,\n round((coalesce(v_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS voiture_kwh,\n round((coalesce(r_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS reseau_kwh,\n round((coalesce(pv_nuit,0) / 3.6e6)::numeric, 2) AS pv_avant_9h_kwh,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n0 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_2130,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.hc AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_0124,\n (SELECT valeur FROM mesure WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_battery_soc' AND ts <= j.n1 AND valeur > 0 ORDER BY ts DESC LIMIT 1) AS soc_9h\n FROM jours j JOIN e ON e.j = j.j\n WHERE j.n1 <= now() AND j.j >= date '2026-09-04'\n),\nf AS (\n SELECT ((CASE WHEN (now() AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris')::time >= time '18:00'\n THEN (now() AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris')::date\n ELSE (now() AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris')::date - 1 END) + time '18:00')\n AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris' AS s0\n),\nsoir AS (\n SELECT sum(p.valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(p.fin, f.s0 + interval '3 hours 30 minutes', now()) - greatest(p.ts, f.s0))\n * CASE WHEN p.cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' THEN -1\n WHEN p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) / 3.6e6 AS kwh\n FROM pts p, f\n WHERE p.fin > f.s0 AND p.ts < least(f.s0 + interval '3 hours 30 minutes', now())\n),\nr AS (SELECT regr_intercept(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) AS a, regr_slope(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) AS b FROM nuits)\nSELECT soiree_kwh::float8 AS \"Soiree\",\n CASE WHEN voiture_kwh < 0.5 THEN maison_nuit_kwh END::float8 AS \"Nuit sans voiture\",\n CASE WHEN voiture_kwh >= 0.5 THEN maison_nuit_kwh END::float8 AS \"Nuit avec voiture\",\n round((r.a + r.b * soiree_kwh)::numeric, 2)::float8 AS \"Regression\",\n NULL::float8 AS \"Ce soir (prevu)\"\n FROM nuits, r\nUNION ALL\nSELECT round(s.kwh::numeric, 2)::float8, NULL, NULL, round((r.a + r.b * s.kwh)::numeric, 2)::float8,\n round((r.a + r.b * s.kwh)::numeric, 2)::float8\n FROM soir s, r\nORDER BY 1"
}
],
"fieldConfig": {
@@ -793,88 +760,9 @@
]
},
"options": {
"mapping": "manual",
"mapping": "auto",
"series": [
{
"frame": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byIndex",
"options": 0
}
},
"x": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byName",
"options": "Soiree"
}
},
"y": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byName",
"options": "Nuit sans voiture"
}
}
},
{
"frame": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byIndex",
"options": 1
}
},
"x": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byName",
"options": "Soiree"
}
},
"y": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byName",
"options": "Nuit avec voiture"
}
}
},
{
"frame": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byIndex",
"options": 2
}
},
"x": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byName",
"options": "Soiree"
}
},
"y": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byName",
"options": "Regression"
}
}
},
{
"frame": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byIndex",
"options": 3
}
},
"x": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byName",
"options": "Soiree"
}
},
"y": {
"matcher": {
"id": "byName",
"options": "Ce soir (prevu)"
}
}
}
{}
],
"legend": {
"showLegend": true,

60
src/energy-balance/BALANCE.js
View File

@@ -140,11 +140,57 @@ if (missing.length) {
// - profil PRUDENT (p80) → planification : cible de nuit, dimensionnement
// du stockage, choix qui engagent plusieurs heures.
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------
function buildSlots(consumption) {
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------
// LA NUIT PREVUE PAR LA SOIREE (28/09/2026, demande du proprietaire)
//
// Le profil p50 est une mediane HORAIRE : il ignore la soiree qui vient de se
// passer. Or sur 24 nuits, la maison consomme d'autant plus de 21:30 a 09:00
// que la soiree 18:00-21:30 a ete chargee (four) : nuit = 6,98 + 0,74 x soiree,
// r2 = 0,40. Le service d'historisation publie le FACTEUR nuit prevue / nuit
// moyenne (sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh) ; on multiplie le profil par ce
// facteur sur la seule fenetre 21:30 -> 09:00, au prorata des heures a cheval.
// Le 28/09 : soiree 6,27 kWh -> facteur 1,09.
//
// Un FACTEUR et non des kWh : le profil vient des compteurs d'energie, la
// regression des puissances integrees ; le rapport annule l'ecart de methode.
// Dans les deux sens pour le profil TYPIQUE (c'est un estimateur, une soiree
// legere allege la nuit) ; le PRUDENT ne descend jamais : max(p80, p50 recale).
// Filet : facteur borne a [0,75 ; 1,45], les extremes des 24 nuits observees
// (0,77 et 1,41 fois la moyenne) — hors de la, c'est une mesure fausse, pas une
// nuit. Facteur absent, perime (> 30 min) ou hors fenetre : profil inchange.
const NIGHT_FACTOR_MIN = 0.75;
const NIGHT_FACTOR_MAX = 1.45;
const nowMsNight = num(input.nowMs, Date.now());
const nightStartMs = num(input.night_house_start_ms, NaN);
const nightEndMs = num(input.night_house_end_ms, NaN);
const nightFactorRaw = num(input.night_house_factor, NaN);
const nightComputedMs = num(input.night_house_computed_ms, NaN);
const nightModelActive =
Number.isFinite(nightFactorRaw) && nightFactorRaw > 0 &&
Number.isFinite(nightStartMs) && Number.isFinite(nightEndMs) && nightEndMs > nightStartMs &&
nowMsNight >= nightStartMs && nowMsNight < nightEndMs &&
Number.isFinite(nightComputedMs) && nowMsNight - nightComputedMs <= 30 * 60000;
const nightFactor = nightModelActive
? Math.min(NIGHT_FACTOR_MAX, Math.max(NIGHT_FACTOR_MIN, nightFactorRaw))
: 1;
function nightShare(startMs) {
const debut = num(startMs, NaN);
if (!nightModelActive || !Number.isFinite(debut)) return 0;
const a = Math.max(debut, nightStartMs), b = Math.min(debut + 3600000, nightEndMs);
return b > a ? (b - a) / 3600000 : 0;
}
function nightScaled(profile, slot) {
const h = num(slot.hour, 0);
return (profile[h] ?? 0) * (1 + (nightFactor - 1) * nightShare(slot.startMs));
}
function buildSlots(consumption, prudent = false) {
return horizon.slice(0, CFG.SEARCH_HOURS).map(slot => {
const hour = num(slot.hour, 0);
const productionKwh = Math.max(0, num(slot.expectedKwh, 0));
const consumptionKwh = consumption[hour] ?? 0;
const consumptionKwh = prudent
? Math.max(consumption[hour] ?? 0, nightScaled(consumptionP50, slot))
: nightScaled(consumption, slot);
return {
startMs: slot.startMs,
hour,
@@ -341,7 +387,7 @@ function coverage(slots, hcFloorPct = 0) {
}
const slotsP50 = buildSlots(consumptionP50);
const slotsP80 = buildSlots(consumptionP80);
const slotsP80 = buildSlots(consumptionP80, true);
const hcFloorTypicalPct = hcReachFloorPct(slotsP50, nextHcStartMs);
const hcFloorNightPrudentPct = hcNightReachActive ? hcReachFloorPct(slotsP80, nextNightHcStartMs) : 0;
const hcFloorPrudentPct = Math.max(hcReachFloorPct(slotsP80, nextHcStartMs), hcFloorNightPrudentPct);
@@ -613,6 +659,14 @@ return [{
surplusAvailableKwh: round2(surplusAfterCrossingKwh),
},
// Nuit prevue par la soiree (28/09) : facteur applique au profil.
nightModel: {
active: nightModelActive,
factor: Math.round(nightFactor * 1000) / 1000,
rawFactor: Number.isFinite(nightFactorRaw) ? nightFactorRaw : null,
forecastKwh: num(input.night_house_forecast_kwh, NaN) || null,
},
// Voiture branchee en HC, depart avant la prochaine HC (28/09).
vehicleMidday: {
active: vehicleRuleActive,

6
src/energy-balance/BUILD_HA_CALLS.js
View File

@@ -154,7 +154,11 @@ const hhmm = ms => new Date(ms).toLocaleTimeString('fr-FR', { timeZone: 'Europe/
const vehText = vm.active
? ` Voiture (départ ${hhmm(vm.departureMs)}) : ${vm.reachableKwh} kWh à donner, solaire ${vm.solarKwh} kWh → ${vm.gridNeeded ? 'réseau justifié' : 'solaire suffisant'}.`
: '';
setText('input_text.evcs_balance_reason', reason + hcText + vehText + degradedNote + ndText);
const nm = balance.nightModel || {};
const nightText = nm.active && Math.abs(nm.factor - 1) >= 0.005
? ` Nuit recalée sur la soirée : conso ×${String(nm.factor).replace('.', ',')}${nm.forecastKwh ? ` (${String(nm.forecastKwh).replace('.', ',')} kWh prévus 21:30-09:00)` : ''}.`
: '';
setText('input_text.evcs_balance_reason', reason + nightText + hcText + vehText + degradedNote + ndText);
// Trace longue durée, pour comparer jour après jour le seuil calculé au seuil
// fixe encore en vigueur — c'est cette comparaison qui décidera du câblage.

5
src/energy-balance/HA_SNAPSHOT_TEMPLATE.json.tpl
View File

@@ -59,6 +59,11 @@
{%- endif -%}
{{ {
"ts": now().isoformat(),
"night_house_factor": state_attr("sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh", "facteur"),
"night_house_start_ms": state_attr("sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh", "debut_ms"),
"night_house_end_ms": state_attr("sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh", "fin_ms"),
"night_house_computed_ms": (as_timestamp(state_attr("sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh", "calcule_a"), 0) * 1000),
"night_house_forecast_kwh": states("sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh"),
"vehicle_connected": is_state("binary_sensor.victron_evcs_vehicle_connected", "on"),
"vehicle_departure_ms": (as_timestamp(vh.dep) * 1000) if vh.dep != '' else none,
"vehicle_level_pct": states("input_number.victron_evcs_vehicle_level_pct"),

6
src/energy-balance/PREPARE_BALANCE.js
View File

@@ -60,6 +60,12 @@ return [{
// Plancher de charge HC manuelle (18/09) : oublie ici jusqu'au 28/09, le
// bouton n'avait donc jamais atteint le bilan.
manual_hc_floor_percent: snapshot.manual_hc_floor_percent,
// Nuit de la maison prevue par la soiree (28/09) : facteur sur le profil.
night_house_factor: snapshot.night_house_factor,
night_house_start_ms: snapshot.night_house_start_ms,
night_house_end_ms: snapshot.night_house_end_ms,
night_house_computed_ms: snapshot.night_house_computed_ms,
night_house_forecast_kwh: snapshot.night_house_forecast_kwh,
// Vehicule branche a midi (28/09, JEEP/VW/ZERO) : depart du jour et besoin saisi.
vehicle_connected: snapshot.vehicle_connected,
vehicle_departure_ms: snapshot.vehicle_departure_ms,

36
tests/diagnostics-agent/run.mjs
View File

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
// Les cas PV reprennent les gammes du banc OpenClaw (HANDOFF §77) : G3, G4, G5, G7.
// node tests/diagnostics-agent/run.mjs
import fs from 'node:fs';
import { diagnosticPv, etatCellules, productionJour, chargeSolaire, bilanNuit, etatReseau, importJour, COMPTEURS_IMPORT, COMPTEUR_EDF, MPPT_MODES, ORIGINE_PAR_SOURCE, consoJour, COMPTEURS_CONSO, projectionSoir, previsionNuit, vrmVersCourbes } from '../../tools/diagnostics-agent.mjs';
import { diagnosticPv, etatCellules, productionJour, chargeSolaire, bilanNuit, etatReseau, importJour, COMPTEURS_IMPORT, COMPTEUR_EDF, MPPT_MODES, ORIGINE_PAR_SOURCE, consoJour, COMPTEURS_CONSO, projectionSoir, previsionNuit, vrmVersCourbes, nuitMaisonPrevue } from '../../tools/diagnostics-agent.mjs';
const LIM = 'voltage_current_limited', ACT = 'mppt_active';
function st({ pv, conso, reseau, soc = 80, courant = 0, edf = 'off', modes }) {
@@ -287,6 +287,40 @@ for (const [nom, r, test] of imp) {
globalThis.__nConso = (globalThis.__nConso || 0) + pj.length;
}
// --- Nuit de la maison prevue par la soiree : les 24 nuits REELLES (04->27/09) ---
{
const N = [[4.11,10.29],[6.52,9.81],[4.65,9.9],[3.76,8.66],[3.53,8.55],[3.61,9.48],[3.73,8.7],[7.04,11.88],
[2.96,10.36],[5.73,13.63],[5.39,8.93],[3.12,8.14],[4.35,12.44],[5.08,12.64],[3.74,10],[4.24,10.75],
[4.96,12.18],[5.47,11.43],[6.68,13.85],[9.48,14.95],[7.48,9.56],[4.41,9.72],[3.67,10.04],[4.81,8.87]]
.map(([soiree, nuit]) => ({ soiree, nuit }));
const soir = new Date('2026-09-28T21:00:00Z'); // 23:00 a Paris
const r = nuitMaisonPrevue(N, 6.27, soir);
const cas = [
// Verifie par un calcul independant (Python) : a 6,979, b 0,7362, r2 0,388,
// moyenne 10,615, prevue 11,595, facteur 1,0924.
['soir du 28/09 : soiree 6,27 -> nuit prevue 11,6 kWh (a 6,98, b 0,736, r2 0,39)', r,
(x) => x.etat === 11.6 && x.attributs.a === 6.98 && x.attributs.b === 0.736 && x.attributs.r2 === 0.39],
['facteur = prevue / moyenne des memes nuits (10,62) -> 1,092', r, (x) => x.attributs.facteur === 1.092 && x.attributs.nuit_moyenne_kwh === 10.62],
['fenetre 21:30 -> 09:00 de la bonne nuit', r,
(x) => x.attributs.debut_ms === Date.parse('2026-09-28T19:30:00Z') && x.attributs.fin_ms === Date.parse('2026-09-29T07:00:00Z')],
['03:00 : c est la nuit commencee la veille', nuitMaisonPrevue(N, 6.27, new Date('2026-09-29T01:00:00Z')),
(x) => x.etat === 11.6 && x.attributs.debut_ms === Date.parse('2026-09-28T19:30:00Z')],
['14:00 -> hors_fenetre (pas de soiree complete)', nuitMaisonPrevue(N, 6.27, new Date('2026-09-28T12:00:00Z')),
(x) => x.etat === 'hors_fenetre' && x.attributs.facteur === null],
['10 nuits seulement -> indisponible', nuitMaisonPrevue(N.slice(0, 10), 6.27, soir),
(x) => x.etat === 'indisponible' && x.attributs.facteur === null],
['nuage sans relation (r2 < 0,2) -> indisponible', nuitMaisonPrevue(N.map((p, i) => ({ soiree: p.soiree, nuit: 10 + (i % 2) })), 6.27, soir),
(x) => x.etat === 'indisponible'],
['soiree illisible -> indisponible', nuitMaisonPrevue(N, NaN, soir), (x) => x.etat === 'indisponible'],
];
for (const [nom, x, test] of cas) {
const ok = test(x); if (!ok) { ko++; console.log(JSON.stringify(x)); }
console.log(`${ok ? 'OK ' : 'KO '} ${nom}`);
}
globalThis.__nConso = (globalThis.__nConso || 0) + cas.length;
}
// --- Prevision de la nuit : releve reel du 28/09 01:25 ----------------------
{
const base = () => new Map(Object.entries({

3
tests/energy-balance/run.mjs
View File

@@ -106,6 +106,9 @@ const SUMMARIZE = {
hcReachActive: o.hcReach ? o.hcReach.active : false,
hcFloorPct: o.hcReach ? o.hcReach.floorPct : null,
hcNightFloorPrudentPct: o.hcReach ? o.hcReach.nightFloorPrudentPct : null,
// Nuit prevue par la soiree (28/09).
nightModelActive: o.nightModel ? o.nightModel.active : false,
nightFactor: o.nightModel ? o.nightModel.factor : null,
// Voiture branchee en HC, depart avant la prochaine HC (28/09).
vehicleActive: o.vehicleMidday ? o.vehicleMidday.active : false,
vehicleNeedKwh: o.vehicleMidday ? o.vehicleMidday.needKwh : null,

45
tests/energy-balance/scenarios-balance.mjs
View File

@@ -512,4 +512,49 @@ export const balanceScenarios = [
snapshot: jeep(snap2709('2026-09-27T12:30:00+02:00', 30, MIDI_2709, SOMBRE), 0, { vehicle_capacity_kwh: 15, vehicle_charger_kw: 0 }),
expect: { usable: true, vehicleActive: true, vehicleReachableKwh: 15, vehicleGridNeeded: true },
},
// ======== LA NUIT PREVUE PAR LA SOIREE (28/09/2026) ========
// Soir du 28/09 : soiree 6,27 kWh -> facteur 1,092 sur le profil de 21:30 a
// 09:00. Meme snapshot avec et sans facteur : seule la consommation de nuit
// bouge, donc le SOC requis monte.
{
node: 'BALANCE',
id: 'bilan-nuit-soiree-reference-sans-facteur',
label: 'Reference : 23:00, SOC 52, sans facteur de nuit',
snapshot: snap2709('2026-09-27T23:00:00+02:00', 52, null),
expect: { usable: true, nightModelActive: false, nightFactor: 1, energyToCoverKwh: 7.77, requiredSocPct: 47.9 },
},
{
node: 'BALANCE',
id: 'bilan-nuit-soiree-chargee-releve-le-requis',
label: 'Soiree chargee (facteur 1,092) : la nuit est plus lourde, le SOC requis monte',
snapshot: Object.assign(snap2709('2026-09-27T23:00:00+02:00', 52, null), {
night_house_factor: 1.092, night_house_forecast_kwh: '11.59',
night_house_start_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-27T21:30:00+02:00'), night_house_end_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-28T09:00:00+02:00'),
night_house_computed_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-27T22:57:00+02:00') }),
// Verifie a la main : profil 23:00->09:00 = 8,0 kWh, x 0,092 = +0,74 (0,71
// apres l'heure ou le soleil revient) ; +2,4 points = 0,71 / 0,30. Le
// prudent (p80) est deja au-dessus du p50 recale : il ne bouge pas.
expect: { usable: true, nightModelActive: true, nightFactor: 1.092, energyToCoverKwh: 8.48,
requiredSocPct: 50.3, prudentRequiredSocPct: 56.7 },
},
{
node: 'BALANCE',
id: 'bilan-nuit-soiree-facteur-perime',
label: 'Facteur calcule il y a 2 h : on ne l applique pas',
snapshot: Object.assign(snap2709('2026-09-27T23:00:00+02:00', 52, null), {
night_house_factor: 1.092,
night_house_start_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-27T21:30:00+02:00'), night_house_end_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-28T09:00:00+02:00'),
night_house_computed_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-27T21:00:00+02:00') }),
expect: { usable: true, nightModelActive: false, nightFactor: 1 },
},
{
node: 'BALANCE',
id: 'bilan-nuit-soiree-facteur-aberrant-borne',
label: 'Facteur 3 (mesure fausse) : borne a 1,45, l extreme observe',
snapshot: Object.assign(snap2709('2026-09-27T23:00:00+02:00', 52, null), {
night_house_factor: 3,
night_house_start_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-27T21:30:00+02:00'), night_house_end_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-28T09:00:00+02:00'),
night_house_computed_ms: Date.parse('2026-09-27T22:57:00+02:00') }),
expect: { usable: true, nightModelActive: true, nightFactor: 1.45, requiredSocPct: 59.8, prudentRequiredSocPct: 62.2 },
},
];

67
tools/diagnostics-agent.mjs
View File

@@ -677,3 +677,70 @@ export function vrmVersCourbes(paires, maintenant = new Date()) {
updated: `${p2(d.getDate())}/${p2(d.getMonth() + 1)} ${p2(d.getHours())}:${p2(d.getMinutes())}`,
};
}
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------
// La nuit de la maison, prevue par la soiree (28/09/2026)
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------
// Demande du proprietaire : « si tu superposes 20 nuits tu dois trouver un
// nuage de points ». Sur 24 nuits (04/09 -> 27/09), l'energie consommee par la
// maison de 21:30 a 09:00 (voiture exclue) suit celle de la soiree 18:00-21:30 :
// nuit = 6,98 + 0,74 x soiree, r2 = 0,40. Une soiree chargee (four) annonce une
// nuit chargee ; le profil horaire MOYEN du bilan ne le voit pas.
//
// Ce qui est publie n'est PAS un kWh a substituer au bilan : c'est un FACTEUR,
// nuit prevue / nuit moyenne des MEMES donnees. Le profil du bilan vient des
// compteurs d'energie, la regression des puissances integrees : le rapport
// annule l'ecart de methode, que la difference ne ferait qu'ajouter.
//
// Garde-fous : au moins 15 nuits et r2 >= 0,2, sinon le modele ne vaut rien et
// on le dit (`indisponible`). Hors 21:30 -> 09:00, pas de soiree complete a
// lire : `hors_fenetre`.
export const NUIT_MIN_NUITS = 15;
export const NUIT_MIN_R2 = 0.2;
function heureLocaleMs(jour, hhmm, reference) {
// Meme calcul de decalage que minuitLocal, pour une heure de Paris donnee.
const decalage = new Date(reference.toLocaleString('en-US', { timeZone: 'Europe/Paris' })) -
new Date(reference.toLocaleString('en-US', { timeZone: 'UTC' }));
return Date.parse(`${jour}T${hhmm}:00Z`) - decalage;
}
export function nuitMaisonPrevue(nuits, soireeKwh, maintenant = new Date()) {
const jourDe = (d) => new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-CA', { timeZone: 'Europe/Paris' }).format(d);
const hm = Number(new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-GB', { timeZone: 'Europe/Paris', hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', hour12: false })
.format(maintenant).replace(':', ''));
const aujourdhui = jourDe(maintenant);
const hier = jourDe(new Date(maintenant.getTime() - 86400000));
const demain = jourDe(new Date(maintenant.getTime() + 86400000));
const fenetre = hm >= 2130 ? { soir: aujourdhui, matin: demain } : hm < 900 ? { soir: hier, matin: aujourdhui } : null;
const pts = (nuits || []).map((x) => [Number(x.soiree), Number(x.nuit)]).filter(([a, b]) => Number.isFinite(a) && Number.isFinite(b));
const n = pts.length;
let modele = null;
if (n >= 2) {
const mx = pts.reduce((s, p) => s + p[0], 0) / n, my = pts.reduce((s, p) => s + p[1], 0) / n;
let sxy = 0, sxx = 0, syy = 0;
for (const [x, y] of pts) { sxy += (x - mx) * (y - my); sxx += (x - mx) ** 2; syy += (y - my) ** 2; }
if (sxx > 0 && syy > 0) {
const b = sxy / sxx;
modele = { a: my - b * mx, b, r2: (sxy * sxy) / (sxx * syy), moyenne: my };
}
}
const r2 = (v) => Math.round(v * 100) / 100;
const attributs = {
nuits: n, soiree_kwh: Number.isFinite(soireeKwh) ? r2(soireeKwh) : null,
a: modele ? r2(modele.a) : null, b: modele ? Math.round(modele.b * 1000) / 1000 : null,
r2: modele ? r2(modele.r2) : null, nuit_moyenne_kwh: modele ? r2(modele.moyenne) : null,
debut_ms: fenetre ? heureLocaleMs(fenetre.soir, '21:30', maintenant) : null,
fin_ms: fenetre ? heureLocaleMs(fenetre.matin, '09:00', maintenant) : null,
};
if (!fenetre) return { etat: 'hors_fenetre', attributs: { ...attributs, facteur: null, statut: 'hors_fenetre' } };
if (!modele || n < NUIT_MIN_NUITS || modele.r2 < NUIT_MIN_R2 || !Number.isFinite(soireeKwh)) {
return { etat: 'indisponible', attributs: { ...attributs, facteur: null, statut: 'indisponible',
explication: !Number.isFinite(soireeKwh) ? 'soiree illisible'
: n < NUIT_MIN_NUITS ? `seulement ${n} nuits (${NUIT_MIN_NUITS} requises)`
: `modele trop faible (r2 ${modele ? r2(modele.r2) : '?'} < ${NUIT_MIN_R2})` } };
}
const prevue = modele.a + modele.b * soireeKwh;
return { etat: r2(prevue), attributs: { ...attributs, facteur: Math.round((prevue / modele.moyenne) * 1000) / 1000,
statut: 'ok', explication: `soiree ${r2(soireeKwh)} kWh -> nuit prevue ${r2(prevue)} kWh (moyenne ${r2(modele.moyenne)}, ${n} nuits, r2 ${r2(modele.r2)})` } };
}

47
tools/gen-grafana-dashboards.py
View File

@@ -217,13 +217,17 @@ PREVISION_A_VENIR = """
# changement), plafond 1 h pour qu'un trou n'extrapole rien — meme methode que
# le rapport de nuit (§76). « Maison » = consommation AC moins la voiture.
# Chiffres verifies contre un calcul independant (script) le 28/09 : identiques.
NUITS_CTE = pathlib.Path(__file__).with_name('grafana-nuits.sql').read_text()
NUITS_CTE = pathlib.Path(__file__).with_name('nuits-maison.sql').read_text()
PROFIL_SQL = pathlib.Path(__file__).with_name('grafana-profil-horaire.sql').read_text()
def nuits_sql(select):
return NUITS_CTE.rstrip() + "\n" + select
CE_SOIR = """,
# UNE seule trame, colonnes X puis Y (mapping automatique : premiere colonne
# numerique = X). La premiere version (4 requetes, mapping manuel par trame)
# affichait « Err » dans Grafana 11.3. La droite est calculee pour CHAQUE nuit :
# elle passe par toutes les abscisses, donc aucun trou ne la coupe.
NUAGE = """,
f AS (
SELECT ((CASE WHEN (now() AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris')::time >= time '18:00'
THEN (now() AT TIME ZONE 'Europe/Paris')::date
@@ -236,17 +240,19 @@ soir AS (
WHEN p.cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) / 3.6e6 AS kwh
FROM pts p, f
WHERE p.fin > f.s0 AND p.ts < least(f.s0 + interval '3 hours 30 minutes', now())
)
SELECT round(s.kwh::numeric, 2) AS "Soiree",
round((regr_intercept(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) + regr_slope(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) * s.kwh)::numeric, 2) AS "Ce soir (prevu)"
FROM nuits, soir s GROUP BY s.kwh"""
DROITE = """
SELECT v.x AS "Soiree", round((r.a + r.b * v.x)::numeric, 2) AS "Regression"
FROM (SELECT regr_intercept(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) AS a, regr_slope(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) AS b,
min(soiree_kwh) AS lo, max(soiree_kwh) AS hi FROM nuits) r,
LATERAL (VALUES (r.lo), (r.hi)) v(x)
ORDER BY 1"""
),
r AS (SELECT regr_intercept(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) AS a, regr_slope(maison_nuit_kwh, soiree_kwh) AS b FROM nuits)
SELECT soiree_kwh::float8 AS "Soiree",
CASE WHEN voiture_kwh < 0.5 THEN maison_nuit_kwh END::float8 AS "Nuit sans voiture",
CASE WHEN voiture_kwh >= 0.5 THEN maison_nuit_kwh END::float8 AS "Nuit avec voiture",
round((r.a + r.b * soiree_kwh)::numeric, 2)::float8 AS "Regression",
NULL::float8 AS "Ce soir (prevu)"
FROM nuits, r
UNION ALL
SELECT round(s.kwh::numeric, 2)::float8, NULL, NULL, round((r.a + r.b * s.kwh)::numeric, 2)::float8,
round((r.a + r.b * s.kwh)::numeric, 2)::float8
FROM soir s, r
ORDER BY 1"""
NUIT_XY = {"type": "xychart", "title": "Soiree contre nuit : le nuage des nuits",
"description": ("Un point = une nuit. En abscisse ce que la maison a consomme de 18:00 a "
@@ -255,13 +261,7 @@ NUIT_XY = {"type": "xychart", "title": "Soiree contre nuit : le nuage des nuits"
"est CE SOIR, place sur la droite : une prevision, pas une mesure. "
"1 point de SOC = 0,30 kWh sur le parc actuel."),
"datasource": PG, "gridPos": {"x": 0, "y": 32, "w": 14, "h": 11},
"targets": [
sql("A", nuits_sql('SELECT soiree_kwh AS "Soiree", maison_nuit_kwh AS "Nuit sans voiture" '
'FROM nuits WHERE voiture_kwh < 0.5 ORDER BY 1'), fmt="table"),
sql("B", nuits_sql('SELECT soiree_kwh AS "Soiree", maison_nuit_kwh AS "Nuit avec voiture" '
'FROM nuits WHERE voiture_kwh >= 0.5 ORDER BY 1'), fmt="table"),
sql("C", nuits_sql(DROITE), fmt="table"),
sql("D", NUITS_CTE.rstrip() + CE_SOIR, fmt="table")],
"targets": [sql("A", NUITS_CTE.rstrip() + NUAGE, fmt="table")],
"fieldConfig": {"defaults": {"unit": "kwatth", "color": {"mode": "palette-classic"},
"custom": {"show": "points", "pointSize": {"fixed": 9}, "pointShape": "circle",
"lineWidth": 2, "fillOpacity": 60}},
@@ -276,12 +276,7 @@ NUIT_XY = {"type": "xychart", "title": "Soiree contre nuit : le nuage des nuits"
{"matcher": {"id": "byName", "options": "Ce soir (prevu)"},
"properties": [{"id": "color", "value": {"mode": "fixed", "fixedColor": "red"}},
{"id": "custom.pointSize", "value": {"fixed": 18}}]}]},
"options": {"mapping": "manual",
"series": [{"frame": {"matcher": {"id": "byIndex", "options": i}},
"x": {"matcher": {"id": "byName", "options": "Soiree"}},
"y": {"matcher": {"id": "byName", "options": n}}}
for i, n in enumerate(["Nuit sans voiture", "Nuit avec voiture",
"Regression", "Ce soir (prevu)"])],
"options": {"mapping": "auto", "series": [{}],
"legend": {"showLegend": True, "displayMode": "list", "placement": "bottom"},
"tooltip": {"mode": "single", "sort": "none"}}}

42
tools/historise-evcs.mjs
View File

@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ import path from 'node:path';
import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
import pg from 'pg';
import { texteRapport, envoyer, donneesNuit, texteDepuis } from './rapport-nuit.mjs';
import { diagnosticPv, etatCellules, productionJour, chargeSolaire, bilanNuit, etatReseau, importJour, minuitLocal, COMPTEURS_IMPORT, COMPTEUR_EDF, consoJour, COMPTEURS_CONSO, projectionSoir, previsionNuit, vrmVersCourbes } from './diagnostics-agent.mjs';
import { diagnosticPv, etatCellules, productionJour, chargeSolaire, bilanNuit, etatReseau, importJour, minuitLocal, COMPTEURS_IMPORT, COMPTEUR_EDF, consoJour, COMPTEURS_CONSO, projectionSoir, previsionNuit, vrmVersCourbes, nuitMaisonPrevue } from './diagnostics-agent.mjs';
const ROOT = path.resolve(path.dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)), '..');
const ONCE = process.argv.includes('--once');
@@ -1994,6 +1994,43 @@ async function publierPrevisionVrm(sql) {
return n;
}
// La nuit de la maison prevue par la soiree (28/09/2026). Les nuits closes
// viennent de la MEME requete que le tableau Grafana « La nuit »
// (tools/nuits-maison.sql) : un seul calcul, deux lecteurs. Le bilan lit le
// FACTEUR (nuit prevue / nuit moyenne) pour recaler son profil de 21:30 a 09:00.
const NUITS_SQL = fs.readFileSync(path.join(path.dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)), 'nuits-maison.sql'), 'utf8');
const SOIREE_SQL = `
WITH pts AS (
SELECT cle, ts, valeur,
least(coalesce(lead(ts) OVER (PARTITION BY cle ORDER BY ts), now()), ts + interval '1 hour') AS fin
FROM mesure WHERE cle IN ('sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1', 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power')
AND ts > to_timestamp($1 / 1000.0) - interval '2 hours' AND ts < to_timestamp($2 / 1000.0)
)
SELECT sum(valeur * extract(epoch FROM least(fin, to_timestamp($2 / 1000.0)) - greatest(ts, to_timestamp($1 / 1000.0)))
* CASE WHEN cle = 'sensor.victron_evcs_ac_power' THEN -1 ELSE 1 END) / 3.6e6 AS kwh,
count(*) FILTER (WHERE cle = 'sensor.victron_consumption_power_l1') AS points
FROM pts WHERE fin > to_timestamp($1 / 1000.0)`;
let nuitMaisonPubliee = false;
async function publierNuitMaison(client) {
if (DRY || !client) return 0;
const maintenant = new Date();
const cadre = nuitMaisonPrevue([], NaN, maintenant);
let res = cadre;
if (cadre.etat !== 'hors_fenetre') {
const nuits = (await client.query(NUITS_SQL + '\nSELECT soiree_kwh AS soiree, maison_nuit_kwh AS nuit FROM nuits')).rows;
const debut = cadre.attributs.debut_ms;
const soir = (await client.query(SOIREE_SQL, [debut - 3.5 * 3600000, debut])).rows[0];
// Une soiree sans mesure (service arrete) ne vaut pas zero kWh.
const soiree = soir && Number(soir.points) > 0 ? Number(soir.kwh) : NaN;
res = nuitMaisonPrevue(nuits, soiree, maintenant);
}
await publierCapteur('sensor.evcs_nuit_maison_prevue_kwh', res.etat, {
friendly_name: 'EVCS — nuit de la maison prevue par la soiree', icon: 'mdi:chart-scatter-plot',
unit_of_measurement: typeof res.etat === 'number' ? 'kWh' : undefined, ...res.attributs,
calcule_a: maintenant.toISOString(),
});
return 1;
}
let bilanNuitPublie = false; // publie des le premier cycle, puis toutes les 5 min
async function publierBilanNuit(client) {
if (DRY || !client) return 0;
@@ -2095,6 +2132,9 @@ async function cycle(client) {
vrm: (DRY || (vrmPublie && new Date().getMinutes() % 15 !== 7)) ? 0 : await publierPrevisionVrm(sql).then((n) => { vrmPublie = true; return n; }).catch((e) => {
console.error(`prevision VRM : ${e.message}`); return 0;
}),
nuitMaison: (DRY || (nuitMaisonPubliee && new Date().getMinutes() % 5 !== 2)) ? 0 : await publierNuitMaison(client).then((n) => { nuitMaisonPubliee = true; return n; }).catch((e) => {
console.error(`nuit de la maison : ${e.message}`); return 0;
}),
bilanNuit: (DRY || (bilanNuitPublie && new Date().getMinutes() % 5 !== 1)) ? 0 : await publierBilanNuit(client).then((n) => { bilanNuitPublie = true; return n; }).catch((e) => {
console.error(`bilan de nuit : ${e.message}`); return 0;
}),

0
tools/grafana-nuits.sql → tools/nuits-maison.sql
View File

8
workflows/evcs-energy-balance-v1.json
View File

File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long